Global Markets Report: Dollar awaits Fed decision… Gold under pressure and oil rises amid supply concerns

Central bank decisions and geopolitical tensions dominated global market movements during trading on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. The US dollar maintained its strength ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision, while gold declined under pressure from rising oil prices and inflation fears, while crude prices benefited from renewed concerns about supply following news of an attack on a Saudi oil refinery.

The U.S. dollar index held steady at around 102.40 , near its highest level in two weeks, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. While markets expect interest rates to remain unchanged, investors are focused on whether the Fed will leave the door open for a December rate hike. This decision is particularly significant given the rise in the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note to around 5.01% , which supports the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets. A more hawkish tone from the Fed could sustain the strength of the U.S. currency, while a less dovish stance could give other currencies a chance to recover. (Reuters)

Outlook: The dollar is likely to maintain its strength in the short term, but the next direction will largely depend on the Fed’s statements and interest rate forecasts in December.

The euro traded near $1.1124 , pressured by the strength of the US dollar and ongoing financial concerns in France. Investors are also awaiting the European Central Bank’s upcoming decision, which could impact interest rate expectations in the Eurozone. Technically, the analysis levels published on October 27 indicate initial support near 1.1165 and initial resistance near 1.1175 , with further support and resistance levels at 1.1158 and 1.1182, respectively. These are reference levels from a previous session, not current market prices, and the price published in the Reuters report on October 28 was $1.1124; therefore, the previous technical levels should not be used directly without updating the chart.
Reuters previous technical analysis

Outlook: The euro will remain under pressure as long as the dollar is strong, and could fall further if the Fed’s statements are more hawkish than expected.

The British pound fell by about 0.1% to $1.32945 in published trading on Wednesday morning, as investors turned to the dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision.

The British pound is influenced by two main factors: expectations of US monetary policy and the upcoming UK budget. Improved confidence in the UK government’s financial position could help support the pound, while a disappointing budget could put further pressure on it.

Outlook: The dollar is favored in the short term, but any less hawkish signals from the Fed or positive developments regarding the UK budget could help the pound recover. Reuters

Fourth: Dollar vs. Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

The dollar held steady near 157.945 yen , as the divergence in interest rate expectations between the United States and Japan continued to support the US currency against the yen.

However, the pair’s proximity to higher levels increases its sensitivity to any statements from Japanese authorities regarding yen weakness, and investors are also awaiting the Bank of Japan’s upcoming meeting. Any hint of tightening Japanese monetary policy could support the yen and put pressure on the pair.

Outlook: The pair remains relatively supported by the strength of the dollar, but the risks of Japanese intervention and changing interest rate expectations could lead to sharp movements in both directions. Reuters

Fifth: US Dollar vs. Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)

The US dollar rose by about 0.1% to 1.4063 Canadian dollars ahead of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision.

Market pricing suggests a roughly 77% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in Canada, aimed at limiting the spillover of higher energy prices to the rest of the economy. However, economists polled by Reuters were more divided on the likelihood of such a hike.

The Bank of Canada’s decision is a key factor for the pair; raising interest rates could support the Canadian dollar, while keeping them unchanged could allow the US dollar to continue its gains, according to the messages accompanying the decision.

Outlook: Movement remains tied to the Bank of Canada’s decision and the direction of the US dollar. I am not including numerical support and resistance levels for this pair here due to a lack of sufficiently independent and verified technical levels within the data I reviewed. Reuters

Sixth: Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold came under pressure on Wednesday as oil prices rose and inflation concerns resurfaced ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. According to Reuters, spot gold fell by about 0.7% to $4,030.20 an ounce , while U.S. gold futures for December delivery dropped by about 0.8% to $4,043 an ounce at the time of publication.

The problem for gold is that high energy prices could keep inflation high, potentially prompting central banks to maintain elevated interest rates for longer. This increases the cost of holding gold, which doesn’t generate a cyclical return, and a strong dollar makes the metal more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Markets are also awaiting the U.S. personal consumption expenditures, or PCE , data due on Thursday, as it is one of the key indicators used by the Federal Reserve to assess inflation.

Technically, an analysis published on October 28 showed key support levels at $4,028, $3,997, and $3,978 per ounce , and resistance levels at $4,097, $4,115, and $4,134 . These are analytical levels from a technical source and are not a guarantee that the price will move to them, and may vary depending on the timing of the analysis and the platform used. Reuters Technical Analysis of Gold

Outlook: Gold faces short-term pressure if the dollar and bond yields continue to rise. However, less hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve or a decline in yields could help the metal recover some of its losses.

Seventh: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow Jones)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 52,377.57 points on October 27, up 15.99 points, or approximately 0.03%, according to published market data. Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision and the earnings reports of several major companies, as interest rate expectations have become a significant factor in stock valuations.

Technically, an analysis published on October 27th indicated a support zone near 52,340 points and resistance at 52,535 points . A break above this resistance could open the way for an upward move towards 52,700–52,850 points, while a break below the key support zone near 52,160 could increase the risk of a decline. These are analytical levels and not confirmed intraday levels for Wednesday’s session. Index data technical analysis

Outlook: The index may benefit from strong corporate results and easing concerns about monetary tightening, but rising yields or hawkish signals from the Fed could limit its gains.

Eighth: Crude oil

Oil prices rose by more than 1% after the Houthi rebels in Yemen announced they had targeted Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery with a missile, reigniting concerns about supply security. Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the attack.

According to Reuters, Brent crude futures rose to $115.47 a barrel , and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to $101.33 a barrel , both up about 1.4% at the time of publication.

Geopolitical risks remain the primary driver of prices, along with U.S. inventory data and OPEC+ decisions. Continued supply disruptions could keep prices elevated, while pressure could ease if tensions subside and concerns do not translate into actual supply shortages. (Reuters)

Outlook: Oil tends to benefit from geopolitical risks in the short term, but sustained high prices depend on whether supplies are actually disrupted, not just on news.

Key events that markets are watching closely

All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve’s decision and its statements regarding the possibility of an interest rate hike in December. Markets are also awaiting the Bank of Canada’s decision, the European Central Bank’s decision, and the Bank of Japan’s meeting this week, along with US inflation data from the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index due on Thursday. These events could lead to significant volatility in the dollar, gold, and stocks, especially if the results or statements differ from investor expectations.

Global markets are moving amid three main factors: interest rate expectations, inflation risks, and geopolitical tensions. The dollar is benefiting from rising yields and cautious anticipation ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision, while gold is under pressure from the prospect of continued high interest rates. Oil is finding support from supply concerns, while the Dow Jones is awaiting corporate earnings and monetary policy signals to determine its next direction.