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In an unprecedented escalation in the Middle East, the United States launched concentrated airstrikes targeting three of Iran’s most important nuclear sites: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. This surprise operation came at a time when markets, analysts, and governments were closely monitoring the moves of US President Donald Trump, who chose to join the recent Israeli attack militarily, escalating the crisis into a dangerous phase with potentially significant consequences for regional security and the global energy market.
Airstrikes: What happened?
In the early hours of Sunday morning, Iranian time, the US president announced in a televised address that the US strikes had “totally obliterated” the three nuclear targets. Trump described the attack as a “full load of bombs” dropped on the Fordow facility, a sensitive uranium enrichment center. The US president threatened further military action if Tehran did not “make peace with Israel.”
Initial reactions in the oil market
The strikes led to a sharp rise in oil price expectations. Brent crude futures rose 11% in the week following the Israeli attack on Iran, and are expected to see an additional jump as trading begins this new week, especially after the US attack. The sharp price volatility was evident in strong and dramatic daily changes in the markets.
“The energy market is growing at a rapid pace,” says Saul Kavonic, energy analyst at MST Marquee.
“If Iran responds as it has threatened, we face a real possibility of oil prices reaching $100 a barrel.”
Strait of Hormuz: A Threatened Lifeline
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important maritime chokepoint, with approximately 20% of global oil production and consumption passing through it daily. The passage is vital not only for Iran, but also for Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and other oil-exporting countries.
Although oil flows have not been directly disrupted yet, concerns are growing about the possibility of Iran:
- Targeting oil infrastructure in Iraq or the Gulf states.
- Disrupting or harassing navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Launching asymmetric attacks on US interests in the region.
Question of the hour: What is America’s true intention?
There remains uncertainty over whether this strike was a limited tactical move or the beginning of a broader campaign aimed at overthrowing the current Iranian regime. Trump’s contradictory statements over the past few days—from fiery threats to announcing a two-week review of the decision, to the sudden execution of the strike—have sent markets scrambling for certainty.
“The oil price is rising,” said Joe DeLaura, a former energy analyst at Rabobank.
“The market wanted certainty. These strikes officially push America into the center of the Middle East theater. The expectation now is that the US Navy will assume the mission of keeping the strait open.”
Market Reflections: From Futures to Shipping
Markets have been volatile since the start of the tensions, with:
- The number of futures contracts held has fallen by the equivalent of 367 million barrels — or 7% — since June 12, the eve of the Israeli strike.
- The cost of chartering ships transporting oil from the Middle East to China has jumped by nearly 90%.
- Gasoline and jet fuel tanker profits rose, as did marine insurance premiums.
There were also real risks to navigational safety, particularly after two oil tankers collided, resulting in a major explosion. Although the incident has not been officially linked to the conflict, the French MICA Center said that increased interference with GPS signals “contributed” to the incident, with approximately 1,000 ships now being jammed daily.
Changes in traders’ behavior
In this turbulent environment:
- Traders have been turning to options contracts extensively to hedge against further price increases.
- They paid premiums that were the highest since 2013 to protect themselves from price increases.
- Volatility and open interest levels have become key indicators closely monitored by institutions to estimate the future direction of the market.
Is there any hope for calm?
Despite the escalation, there are still signs of a possible decline:
- Oil flows from the Gulf have not yet been effectively cut off.
- Iran hinted on Friday that it might modify its nuclear program, prompting a drop in oil prices, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to Tehran’s decisions.
- In the past, such as the 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facility, the damage was absorbed and prices returned to decline within a few weeks.
Scene summary
This American strike is not merely a passing military step; it is a turning point that could redraw the map of conflict in the Middle East. Between a scenario of widespread escalation that ignites the Gulf and a final negotiated ceasefire that contains the fire before it ignites, markets, economic interests, and maritime security remain suspended on a thin thread of political and rational decisions in Tehran and Washington.
Ultimately, the market’s ability to absorb shocks will depend on two main things:
- How will Iran respond?
- Whether the United States will escalate or keep it within the scope of limited deterrence.
But what is certain is that the coming days will be decisive… in politics and in gasoline prices around the world.
