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Gold continues to attract the attention of investors and central banks alike, amid economic and geopolitical fluctuations that open the door to record price levels that may reach $4,000 per ounce within the next two years. Conversely, we have some forecasts indicating a decline to $2,700.
Are we facing a new wave of rise or fall?
Central bank purchases – continued official support
- In the first quarter of 2025, central banks purchased approximately 244 tons of gold.
- Main buyers :
- Poland : +49 tons
- China : +13 tons
- Turkey, Kazakhstan, Czech Republic, Egypt, Qatar : Significant increases
- 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their reserves in the coming months.
- Main objective: diversifying reserves and reducing dependence on the dollar.
Investment Demand – Gold Funds Return to the Forefront
- Gold-backed investment funds (ETFs) are expected to attract strong inflows of $30 billion through 2025.
- Despite some declines in May, the overall trend remains upward, supported by:
- inflation concerns
- global political tensions
- Possibility of a US interest rate cut
Price Forecast – Targets approaching the tops
Bank/InstitutionExpected Price (End 2025)Future Forecast (2026)Goldman Sachs | $3,700 | $3,880 with Possible Recession
JP Morgan | $3,675 | $4,000 mid-2026
Citi | $3,300 → $2,800 | Possibility of falling below $3,000
UBS / BofA | $3,500 | —
Reuters Average | $3,065 | $3,000
JP Morgan | $3,675 | $4,000 mid-2026
Citi | $3,300 → $2,800 | Possibility of falling below $3,000
UBS / BofA | $3,500 | —
Reuters Average | $3,065 | $3,000
Factors supporting the rise of gold
- Central bank purchases are at their highest levels in decades.
- The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025.
- Geopolitical tensions involving the Middle East, Ukraine, and currency competition.
- Confidence in the US dollar has declined in some emerging markets.
Expected scenarios
Scenario Price Range ($) Probability Fundamental | 3,300 – 3,700 | 70%
Optimistic | 3,700 – 4,000+ | 20%
Pessimistic | 2,700 – 3,100 | 10–15%
Optimistic | 3,700 – 4,000+ | 20%
Pessimistic | 2,700 – 3,100 | 10–15%
