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Investors focused today on economic data from the Eurozone and the United States, as markets increasingly anticipate the European Central Bank’s meeting scheduled for this week. European inflation data showed a marked decline in both the headline and core readings, strengthening the chances of an interest rate cut at the next meeting. However, concerns remain about a resurgence of inflation due to the escalating trade war and higher tariffs, which could limit the pace of any future monetary easing.
In the United States, mixed economic signals continued, with labor market data (job openings) performing stronger than expected, while factory orders contracted significantly, reflecting the challenges facing the manufacturing sector amid tight financial conditions and a global slowdown.
Detailed economic data by country:
Eurozone:
- Core CPI y/y Estimated Reading:
- Actual: 2.3%
- Expected: 2.4%
- Previous: 2.7%
➤ Indicates a slowdown in the pace of core inflation, which excludes more volatile items such as energy and food.
- Estimated reading of the Consumer Price Index (CPI y/y):
- Actual: 1.9%
- Expected: 2.0%
- Previous: 2.2%
➤ General inflation falling below 2% opens the door to a rate cut at the European Central Bank meeting.
- Unemployment rate:
- Actual: 6.2%
- Expected: 6.2%
- Previous: 6.3%
➤ Slight improvement in the labor market despite weak economic activity.
- Monthly unemployment rate in Italy:
- Actual: 5.9%
- Expected: 6.1%
- Previous: 6.1%
➤ A sudden decline reflects an improvement in local employment.
- French government budget:
- Actual: -69.3 billion euros
- Previous: -47.0 billion euros
➤ A large widening deficit indicates high spending or low revenue.
- Change in Spanish unemployment:
- Actual: -57.8 thousand
- Expected: -68.5K
- Previous: -67.4 thousand
➤ Improvement in the labor market, but less than expected.
United States:
- Number of job openings (JOLTS Job Openings):
- Actual: 7.39 million
- Expected: 7.11 million
- Previous: 7.19 million
➤ An indication of the flexibility of the labor market and the continued demand for employment despite economic pressures.
- Factory Orders (m/m):
- Actual: -3.7%
- Expected: -3.1%
- Previous: 4.3%
➤ A sharp decline reflects weakness in industrial investment and demand for capital goods.
Switzerland:
- Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI m/m):
- Actual: 0.1%
- Expected: 0.1%
- Previous: 0.0%
➤ A slight increase confirms the stability of price levels without significant inflationary pressures.
Australia:
- Quarterly Corporate Earnings (q/q):
- Actual: -0.5%
- Expected: 1.2%
- Previous: 6.0%
➤ A sudden decline raises concerns about companies’ performance during the last quarter.
- Current account:
- Actual: -14.7 billion
- Expected: -12.4 billion
- Previous: -16.3 billion
➤ A relatively high deficit could affect the value of the Australian dollar.
Japan:
- Monetary Base y/y:
- Actual: -3.4%
- Expected: -4.2%
- Previous: -4.8%
➤ A smaller-than-expected decline, indicating a gradual stabilization in liquidity.
- 10-Year Bond Auction:
- Results: 1.51% | Coverage ratio 3.7
- Previous: 1.27% | Coverage ratio 2.5
➤ A higher yield may reflect inflationary pressures or weak demand.
China:
- Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index:
- Actual: 48.3
- Expected: 50.7
- Previous: 50.4
➤ A clear contraction in the private industrial sector, raising concerns about Chinese growth.
